Voice of America: China's overcapacity and economic woes

“There are high levels of complementarity between the Australian and the Chinese economy. But there is no question that the Australian prosperity relies on the prosperity and the growth of the Chinese economy. The traditional areas remain important, now that's the export of things like iron or and agricultural products. But new areas of cooperation, new areas of investment development include green energy, the digital economy and climate related developments. In these areas, China is a leader.” Daryl Guppy, Former Member of the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), Australian Representative of the Silk Road Chamber of International Commerce (SRCIC), told us in an exclusive interview. China and Australia have particularly close economic and trade ties and have gradually developed a mutually beneficial and win-win economic and trade relationship. Currently, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has entered its third year of implementation, and under the RCEP mechanism and framework, China-Australia bilateral trade is playing an increasingly important role. “Now recently, there have been some what we would call behind the border barriers that go against the spirit of chapter. That includes some changes to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board, and the way that is treating investment proposals from China differently from the way the proposals from the United Kingdom, the United States are treated. So there is room for some revisioning, the terms of chapter and some improvement of that. RCEP provides many opportunities for China and Australia regulation and cooperation.” Guppy added. Read: https://lnkd.in/gd2763f2

🚗 🇨🇳 Our Head of the Prague office, Filip Šebok, commented for Chinese Voice of America on the EU-China trade dispute. The EU has postponed the vote, originally scheduled for Sept 25, on whether to impose tariffs of up to 35.3% on electric cars imported from China. 💬 Filip sees the dispute over electric car tariffs as one of many manifestations of rising tensions between the EU and China over trade. He notes, “Given the new European Commission's focus on improving European competitiveness, including better protecting the EU market from what it identifies as unfair practices by China, I believe these tensions will continue.” 🇪🇺 However, Filip explained, this won’t deal a fatal blow to China's interests, as some Chinese automakers will still be able to profit in the EU market, which remains more open than in the US or Canada. 🔗 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/esu6FgAY

"At present, the trade relations between China and the EU have a lot of ‘hard bones’. For example, the trade imbalance between the EU and China is very difficult for Europe. It’s been an explosion of Chinese exports into Europe, which has given consumers a good opportunity, but it’s been a challenge for European industry.” Adam Dunnett, the Secretary General at the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told us during the Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit 2024 on May 13. Adam Dunnett has been closely monitoring China's efforts to further open up. He noted that China has made tangible progress in expanding and opening up by continuously revising the negative lists for foreign investment and eliminating or easing restrictions on foreign equity ownership. "So we are clear that the Chinese market is still attractive, but it is important that companies that make an investment here are able to see a return on their investment and get the clarity that they need to assure their stakeholders back home that this is the right place to be," added Adam Dunnet. Read:https://lnkd.in/eGBs9MdQ

European Parliament discusses China's electric car case, EU official: Negotiations with China can continue after investigation The EU's anti-subsidy investigation into China's electric vehicles is nearing completion, with a key discussion set for September 30 by the European Parliament's Trade Committee. Following the investigation, EU trade officials indicated that negotiations with China could proceed, which may help resolve significant trade tensions. The European Commission began this inquiry last year, with findings expected before October 30. Trade Defense Director Martin Lukas noted that over 40 personnel are involved in the investigation, highlighting its scale. Chinese government subsidies have allowed its electric vehicle sector to grow rapidly in the EU, increasing its market share from 3.5% in 2020 to 27.2% this year. Chinese brands' share alone rose from 1.9% to 14.1%. With about 3 million unsold electric vehicles in China, subsidized overcapacity poses a threat to the EU automobile industry. The Executive Committee suggests countervailing duties on electric vehicles between 7.8% and 35.3%, lower than the 100% tariffs seen in the US and Canada. Negotiations with China will continue after the investigation. While Chinese importers previously proposed a minimum import price to combat low-price competition, this was rejected. Future talks will depend on adherence to World Trade Organization regulations and monitoring of China’s commitments. The Trade Committee discussion revealed differing viewpoints, with Hungarian member Eniko Gyori questioning the rationale behind the trade conflict, while others criticized China for its role. Marketa Gregorova emphasized the need to hold China accountable for past agreements, drawing parallels with the EU's solar industry experience. Raphael Glucksmann urged the EU to counter China's coercive tactics and establish strong protections for strategic sectors. #MotiveAsia #Taiwan https://lnkd.in/g4Fdi89y

Central Bank: Taiwan's risks in Trump's tariff war are low, but semiconductor cluster may be weakened US President-elect Trump plans to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods, raising concerns among many nations. Taiwan is classified as a low-risk country according to the "Trump Risk Index," but its semiconductor industry may still face challenges from these policies. Factors influencing tariff decisions include trade balance with the U.S. relative to GDP, military expenditures, diplomatic relations with China, and existing trade policies. Despite being at lower risk compared to South Korea and Japan, Taiwan still has a higher risk concerning trade volume with the U.S. However, its alignment with U.S. positions on China mitigates potential tariff impacts. Hidden concerns persist, particularly if Trump demands domestic manufacturing alongside tariff imposition, which could disrupt Taiwan's semiconductor sector and weaken its industrial clusters. The International Monetary Fund warns that a 10% tariff may destabilize global trade and long-term economic growth. The Institute of Economics of Academia Sinica emphasizes the interconnectedness between Taiwan, the U.S., and China. A slowdown in either economy could adversely affect Taiwan’s projected growth of 3.1% for the coming year, potentially dropping to 2.93% if both the U.S. and China experience downturns. #Semiconductors #Taiwan Want more analysis of major developments in AI, semiconductors, and cloud computing in Asia? Subscribe now to the Cognitive Asia newsletter--free of charge--at Substack https://lnkd.in/g4s6bqfi https://lnkd.in/gE6GPwJS

Doug Bandow, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, highlighted at the 10th China and Globalization Forum that the obstacles encountered by globalization include protectionism and economic nationalism. Economic priorities are taking a back seat to security considerations, resulting in shifts in supply chains driven by fears of foreign dominance in various industries. This has escalated the push for decoupling and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, economic sanctions targeting the regulation of industries and technologies are exerting an influence on the market.   Saroja Sirisena, Former Sri Lankan High Commissioner to the UK, said that “We must have a common understanding of rules and learn how to better manage this multipolar world. A new international order is necessary for effective governance; otherwise, we cannot maintain high productivity. Additionally, we must consider that all countries should be equal under a rules-based international order.” Center for China and Globalization Read: https://lnkd.in/gzbyGGFi

Central Bank: Risk from Trump's tariff threat to Taiwan is low, but semiconductor cluster may weaken US President-elect Trump plans to implement a tariff war, proposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on imported goods and 60% on Chinese imports. A central bank report cites the "Trump Risk Index," assessing Taiwan as low-risk for US tariffs, less so than South Korea and Japan. Taiwan's favorable position stems from military expenditure and diplomatic relations aligning with US interests regarding China. Nevertheless, concerns persist about Taiwan's semiconductor industry. If tariffs are enforced, leading to a push for manufacturing relocation to the US, Taiwan could see a dispersion of its semiconductor resources, undermining its industrial cluster. This shift could negatively impact both exports and employment in Taiwan. The International Monetary Fund warns that comprehensive tariffs could disrupt around 25% of global merchandise trade, causing increased uncertainty and economic losses. The Institute of Economics of Academia Sinica highlights the links between economic performance in the US and China and Taiwan's growth. With stable US and Chinese economies, Taiwan's growth could reach 3.2% next year. However, weak performances from these economies might reduce Taiwan's growth rate to approximately 2.93%, underscoring the potential fragility of Taiwan's economic outlook amid changing global trade dynamics. #Semiconductors #Taiwan Want more analysis of major developments in AI, semiconductors, and cloud computing in Asia? Subscribe now to the Cognitive Asia newsletter--free of charge--at Substack https://lnkd.in/g4s6bqfi https://lnkd.in/g48vdNnR

EY Greater China region releases the 11th issue of China Go Abroad – Cross the millennia-old trade route New perspectives on Arab investment Against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving international landscape, China-Arab relations have ushered in a new era. Both sides are emphasizing economic development based on mutual benefit and innovation, creating vast opportunities for collaboration. In the future, China and the League of Arab States (LAS) will continue to leverage platforms such as the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum and the China-Arab States Summit to strengthen their strategic partnership, accelerate cooperation in sectors such as finance, energy, infrastructure development and consumer goods, and work together to advance a more inclusive and equitable multilateral framework on a global scale. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gYXtk8nP   安永大中华区发布第十一期《中国走出去》系列报告﹕《跨越千年商道：阿拉伯投资新视角》。在国际格局日益复杂的背景下，中国和阿拉伯国家联盟关系迈向新纪元，双方聚焦经济发展，以互惠互利为核心，以创新驱动为动力，拓展了前所未有的合作空间。未来，中阿将继续依托“中阿合作论坛”及“中国—阿拉伯国家峰会”等平台，进一步提升战略伙伴关系，加快金融、能源、基础设施建设和消费品等领域合作，共同推进平等有序、普惠包容的多边新格局。阅读更多：https://lnkd.in/gP3sfv3f

“Hong Kong should never be complacent but keep moving forward vigorously. Various sectors, such as the culinary industry, need to transform to attract both tourists and locals to stay and spend. Otherwise, Hong Kong will be obsolete.” Frederick Ma, Group Chairman of FWD Insurance, told the reporter of Southern Finance Omnimedia at Opportunities Hong Kong. Since Hong Kong fully reopened its borders to normalcy in 2023, HK government has introduced a series of policies to enhance economic and trade exchanges with mainland and overseas. Also, the governemnt has stepped up efforts to support enterprise innovation, and promote economic recovery. Private consumption, contributing to more than 70% of Hong Kong's economy, serves as a significant driver for the ongoing economic recovery. In response to recent badmouthing of economic decline in Hong Kong by western media in recent years, Frederick Ma said that following the enactment of the national security law, Hong Kong has achieved a ful restoration of stability. With Hong Kong transitioning from a state of turmoil to order and economic growth, it's imperative for both the government and the business community to enhance their public relations efforts to counter any biased narratives that could impact the global perception of Hong Kong. Read：https://lnkd.in/gfDF_ibs