Yuri Bender’s Post

What do you think will shape geopolitics in 2025? Plutocracy, Kakistocracy, Anocracy or something else? This APAC news outlet concludes we are indeed living in “hard-to-decipher times”. https://lnkd.in/gAtCB2zw #publicpolicy #governmentrelations #geopolitics #publicaffairs #asiapacific #politicsmatters

Here’s what I think is most interesting from the Economist in geopolitics and the US election this week. “Intrigue, greed and hostility burn in the Antarctic”: Antarctica is governed by a treaty that says the continent should be used for peaceful purposes only. The seven countries with territorial claims are a list that some of us might wish ruled the world: Norway, New Zealand, Chile and the like.  But now all the usual suspects (China, Saudi, etc) are investing. A treaty loophole allows military activity for “peaceful” purposes (oxymoron?).  Where geopolitics goes, so go “neutral” zones like the poles (and space). “Anti-politics is eating the West”: This long-read is packed with interesting analysis. The Economist studied global data (50 democracies over 60 years) on people voting not for the party they believe in, but against those whom they fear.  We have all seen this phenomenon, but the data show it has increased in all sorts of systems and cultures. Some correlations with the increase include a lower risk of war (which allows space for disunity), and greater skepticism that government brings economic and social gains for all people regardless of party.  “This campaign is also demonstrating America’s democratic vitality”: Here’s a more uplifting thought, especially four days before the election: US media’s “very freedom to misuse their freedom is a measure of what keeps America great”. Also, voter turnout is up and racial and geographic political polarization are down, leading to more broad-based campaigning.  I’m not going to go so far as to say our democracy isn’t under severe threat, but it’s nice to see the glass half full once in a while. “North Korea’s aid to Russia raises difficult questions in China”: China may not approve of North Korea sending troops to support Russia, thus straining the ties among those countries I described a month ago. As it cozies up with Russia, North Korea could become less economically dependent on China, and could feel emboldened to stoke instability in their shared neighborhood.  A multi-polar world means that allies are less reliable, especially when they are dictatorships.

My OP-ED published today in the *The Nation* newspaper: *Seizing the Multipolar Moment* *As power shifts, new poles and polarity patterns emerge. The same phenomena are occurring in our times.* Over the years, the global political and economic system has undergone seismic transformations. International political order went from a bipolar configuration between 1945 and 1989 to a unipolar alignment between 1989 and 2008, before entering what we today call intricate multipolarity. This emerging multipolar era results from combining three dynamics. First, a broader distribution of wealth in the world; second, states’ inclination to assert themselves strategically and ideologically; and third, an increasingly transactional international system based on bilateral deals rather than global rules. This colossal paradigm shift in global geopolitics is initiating new concepts and political structures that have far-reaching consequences on regional and global political landscapes. The smaller and middle powers states are reaping geopolitical and geo-economics dividends and leveraging their positioning to uplift their geopolitical standings. The US-China contestation for global influence, Russia’s Ukraine war, and the unfolding humanitarian disaster in Palestine due to Israel’s unlawful oppression of the Palestinian territory—importantly—impacted global politics and pushed regional countries to realign their domestic and foreign policy in accordance with fluid global political trajectories. The ‘multipolarity’ has become an inescapable concept for understanding modern international political dynamics. Future progress of the world, civilization, and societies are linked to understanding the cultural sensitivities of each other, giving space to opponents, protecting vulnerable ones, and investing in human development and peace rather than waging mindless and endless wars, most importantly carving out space for multilateral cooperation bases upon mutual respects while disregarding the strength and size of a country. Read More: https://lnkd.in/dHYKQBdt

"Free world Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster" Who defines which country is so called the Free World? Is the Free World considered country really free? In the sense that does not depend on any power that is, or it's used as satellite, or influence in different areas that are a particular interests of any power that is? It should not be a question of politics, the term has a clear Geopolitical definition. How many countries listed under Free World are really free from difference, poverty, health, true independence and mostly sovereignty and respect? So when you mention Free World meditate. Should the term still be used?

Democracy Investments is incredibly honored to have been invited to present last month at the 7th Annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit, also known as the “Davos without Dictators,” with 650+ participants from over 80 countries. Leaders from around the world spoke with passion and urgency, including the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, Richard Branson, Senator Mitch McConnell, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Matthew Pottinger, and the Presidents of Taiwan Ing-wen Tsai and Lai Ching-te. The Summit is sponsored annually by Alliance of Democracies Foundation, which was founded by former NATO Secretary General and Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. He opened the conference with “…It is easy… to believe that the rise of the autocrats is inevitable, that the decline of democracy is irreversible. We must never give in to this hopelessness… because freedom is the most powerful force on Earth.” Join us for this 10 minute session on the benefits of “Investing in Democracy” to see me and Rick Rikoski share their opinion about how western financial institutions have unintentionally funded the modern rise of authoritarianism and learn about a solution for investing to help support liberty and the global fight for freedom. Rick opines “The moral of the story is: The GDP growth does not guarantee investment returns, corruption has a cost and if you are just greedy, you should be investing in democracy.” https://lnkd.in/gpFS_25c Here are a few of the many powerful highlights of the Summit: • Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak launched a report on “Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Future: Paving the path to Peace & Security” on behalf of the International Taskforce on Ukraine’s Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration. The report outlines immediate steps to strengthen Ukraine’s security and proposes for Ukraine to join NATO. • Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) Parliamentarians signed a pledge to support Taiwan and called on governments to promote deeper ties with Taiwan and to pursue a policy of active deterrence. • Former national security advisor Matt Pottinger shared the importance of deterrence when dealing with authoritarians and proposed investing in preparedness and alliances to dissuade expansionist dictators. Further insights on the urgency to defend Taiwan can be found in Matt's new book "The Boiling Moat" and in Jonas Parello-Plesner's book "The Battle for Taiwan" Thank you Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Jonas Parello-Plesner, James Holtum, and Danielle Piatkiewicz for all your important work and efforts that resulted in a powerful and inspirational Summit with urgent and clear calls to action. Freedom IS the most powerful force!

Democracy Investments is incredibly honored to have been invited to present last month at the 7th Annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit, also known as the “Davos without Dictators,” with 650+ participants from over 80 countries. Leaders from around the world spoke with passion and urgency, including the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, Richard Branson, Senator Mitch McConnell, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Matthew Pottinger, and the Presidents of Taiwan Ing-wen Tsai and Lai Ching-te. The Summit is sponsored annually by Alliance of Democracies Foundation, which was founded by former NATO Secretary General and Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. He opened the conference with “…It is easy… to believe that the rise of the autocrats is inevitable, that the decline of democracy is irreversible. We must never give in to this hopelessness… because freedom is the most powerful force on Earth.” Join us for this 10 minute session on the benefits of “Investing in Democracy” to see Julie Cane and Rick Rikoski share their opinion about how western financial institutions have unintentionally funded the modern rise of authoritarianism and learn about a solution for investing to help support liberty and the global fight for freedom. Rick opines “The moral of the story is: The GDP growth does not guarantee investment returns, corruption has a cost and if you are just greedy, you should be investing in democracy.” https://lnkd.in/gpFS_25c Here are a few of the many powerful highlights of the Summit: • Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak launched a report on “Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Future: Paving the path to Peace & Security” on behalf of the International Taskforce on Ukraine’s Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration. The report outlines immediate steps to strengthen Ukraine’s security and proposes for Ukraine to join NATO. • Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) Parliamentarians signed a pledge to support Taiwan and called on governments to promote deeper ties with Taiwan and to pursue a policy of active deterrence. • Former national security advisor Matt Pottinger shared the importance of deterrence when dealing with authoritarians and proposed investing in preparedness and alliances to dissuade expansionist dictators. Further insights on the urgency to defend Taiwan can be found in Matt's new book "The Boiling Moat" and in Jonas Parello-Plesner's book "The Battle for Taiwan" Thank you Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Jonas Parello-Plesner, James Holtum, and Danielle Piatkiewicz for all your important work and efforts that resulted in a powerful and inspirational Summit with urgent and clear calls to action. Freedom IS the most powerful force!

I guess all is not well in Democracy vs. Democracy Land. The essential stupidity of the Biden trope: "Existential struggle between democracy and autocracy." was the misdirection of attention to the key drivers of power. The USA is busy becoming a proper Empire. To make that omelette, it has to break a few eggs. The Biden adventure in Ukraine shattered the European economy. It also caused NATO to empty its arsenal. Germany is a train-wreck, and so politics will go extreme. Now the Trump adventure in Monroe Doctrine 2.0 starts. The domestic Australian press, and the national security wonks, are too darn stupid to clock any of this. They are brain-dead. They are a complete and total waste of time, money, and space. While all the bullshit rhetoric goes down, nations are learning how to street fight. India, Singapore and Vietnam do it well. Australia has not got a clue, but we are so far away that the new ear of colonialism will be over before we even notice. We are part of it, but folks are out to lunch. Hell, this idiot newspaper only discovered today that for Australian minerals to do well we need a healthy economy in China. Whichever geriatric fool they have in the Whitehouse has no bearing on how the Australian minerals industry does. The only thing Washington D.C. knows how to do is to screw our minerals industry by leaning on our government to make no money by pretending to sell minerals to folks who do not buy them. It is *all* comedy of the darkest kind.

A terrific analysis from Aude Darnal of The Stimson Center on how semantic debates - here about "the Global South" - can distract from pragmatic #policy gains. Reading it reminded me of decades of discussions about naming re-/emerging powers, rising powers, challenger states, etc. Terminology mattered here too, with the emphasis on power implying threat and making existing power less likely to engage productively in policy discussions. I have long argued that, to understand and effectively engage with states like #China, #India or #Brazil, we have to understand what motivates them and how those motivations relate to their geopolitical ambitions. Only then can we accurately assess the opportunities for mutual gains. I expect the same is true for the Global South, Majority World, etc. My two cents focused exclusively on the concept of emerging powers here... ➡ https://lnkd.in/divi5wcb and here... ➡https://lnkd.in/dKrxQPdy Additional research here... https://lnkd.in/dvA2THkt World Politics Review

"Navigating Political Polarization and Global Tensions: The Challenges of Modern Governance" The current political landscape is marked by deepening polarization, both within individual countries and on the global stage. In many democracies, the ideological divide between progressive and conservative factions has widened, often leading to gridlock in governance and a growing mistrust between elected officials and the public. Social issues, economic challenges, and debates over climate change have intensified these divides, creating a sense of urgency among activists and voters. Additionally, the rise of populist leaders in various regions has shifted the focus of political discourse, emphasizing national sovereignty, immigration, and the challenges posed by globalization. This has sparked a broader conversation about the future of democracy, the role of technology in elections, and the potential consequences of eroding political norms. Internationally, geopolitics is increasingly shaped by tensions between major powers, notably the U.S., China, and Russia. These rivalries are playing out in areas like trade, technology, military influence, and regional conflicts, reshaping alliances and raising the stakes in global diplomacy. The war in Ukraine, for instance, has drawn attention to the fragility of international order, highlighting the challenges of balancing national security with global stability. Meanwhile, climate change and its political ramifications are forcing governments to re-evaluate their strategies, with mixed results in terms of action and cooperation. As we move forward, the intersection of domestic policy and global affairs will undoubtedly influence the trajectory of global politics, requiring nuanced leadership and a commitment to addressing both local and international concerns.

In search of an explanation of why countries decentralize: The centrifugal state https://lnkd.in/eCip4YGb