Zach Dorfman’s Post

“…as Israel Hayom's senior diplomatic and White House correspondent Ariel Kahana puts it, "Israel is, with its own hands, helping its enemy to prepare to wage war." Netanyahu obviously knows this, if only because prior exchanges have led to disaster, so why did he agree? Because he fears Donald Trump… Why did Trump push so hard for a deal? ...to win glory for himself… He ignored, of course, the grievous future costs of his momentary success. The deal releases many hundreds of hardened Islamist criminals, now free to return to their murderous ways. It nearly assures continued Hamas rule in Gaza. It boosts Islamist morale worldwide. It humiliates the West's foremost Middle Eastern ally. It also confirms Donald Trump's inconstant, unreliable, and ego-driven foreign policy. Benjamin Netanyahu will be not the last U.S. ally humiliated by self-centered presidential demands… This leads to an inescapable conclusion: allies... must reduce their dependence on Washington. This may well be a good thing. Decreased reliance on American leadership concentrates the mind, exercises unused talents, and encourages a seriousness of purpose. Thus does an incompetent America, as symbolized by the "horrific" Hamas-Israel ceasefire, push free countries more actively to determine their own futures." Daniel Pipes, Middle East Forum #TheArtOfTheDeal

Important Read!

So some people call me a conspiracy theorist, but the issue is figuring out the conspiracy. I don't think that there is a cabal of people that run the world. I do think that there are dozens of different cabals, some of whom run some things and some people who run others, and it's a mess to try to figure out what is going on. It helps if you look at history and the history of history. We are still trying to figure out what went on to start World War 1, and one lesson that I've learned from history is that you get a lot of situations where someone thinks X is going on but Y is happening, or they expect X but Y happens. So it doesn't look like that the US actively plotted for the overthrow of Assad, and it looks like people in the US are really, really confused about what to do which says something not good about how decision making happens in Washington. The other thing is that I find weird about Biden's remarks is "whoa, aren't you going to be out of a job in about a month?" Right now, what I am seeing in the foreign policy journals is a rear guard action by the Biden administration to lock in policy for Trump. The stuff that people in the Biden administration are publishing right now is *weird*. Normally when you are about to leave the job, you would write a farewell address (like Reagan's speech when he left the White House) and you would describe what you are happy you got done, and what you wish you had done differently. The stuff that the Biden team is writing is stuff you would write at the *start* of an administration. So what I think is going to happen is that the Biden people are going to try to use the "deep state" to force Trump toward certain policies, and this makes for a very bumpy transition. https://lnkd.in/gVDTWmmG

Whilst most of Donald Trump's idiotic threats are just that - what he is doing is setting up precedent and example for foreign nations who have owners/operators of critical infrastructures in any country to have a right to invade the country in which their citizens own/operate such assets. Trump doesn't understand that this is what he is doing, but in effect other similar minded dictators like Valdimir Putin, Xi Jinping, could take a decision to pursue similar in fact in Panama itself with the Chinese or the Baltics with Russia. This is of great concern to many who have participated and invested in a globalised world economy and order. Another example to consider for my country which only celebrated its national holiday yesterday - Australia Day - - needs to consider if Donald Trump could decide to take over Darwin because the US Army has been invited to have a base there. Worse still, could Xi Jinping decide on the basis of that logic - that since it is a CCP company that has a current and legal 99 year lease on the port of Darwin - perhaps they should take that over before Trump does - and whilst they are at it they could have a proxy war in northern Australia - all without Australian consent. Sounds utterly ridiculous, doesn't it???? - You bet it is. However - when nation states start to make these wild excursions into commercial territory - they are behaving as communists and illegally challenging international law, rules, order and ultimately sovereignty. It is wrong in every way. Importantly - we need to remember that Governments are not corporations but merely national administrative bodies and should stay well out of such territory. If Governments don't know how to compete or contest with better ideas or economic readiness, they should not be playing in ponds they can't afford to keep in proper order. Mr. Trump - leave the Panamanians and the Danes alone. Panama has never - never belonged to America and should not be threatened by an ally. Denmark is a NATO nation that has a right to invoke Article 5 - if you continue down this bizarre road. This is not the art of negotiation - it is the art of hedonist bullying because you think you can. Go and pick on someone your own size - like maybe Russia or China and lets see how big you grow them then. My bet is they will shrink!!

𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀—𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 Excerpts: "A tyrannical foreign regime is doing everything in its power to place its favored candidate in the White House. But in 2024, this is no fantasy scenario about Russia making Donald Trump president. Instead, it’s a deadly serious effort by Iran to help Kamala Harris—and kill Trump." "Tehran wants more than just revenge on Trump for the drone strike that took out Qasem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander who was Iran’s top exporter of state-sponsored terrorism. It wants a return to the complacent days of the last Democratic administration, when Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the 'Iran deal'—eased sanctions and released billions of dollars in assets to the Islamic Republic." "Liberals accuse Trump of being cozy with dictators, but the dictators of Iran’s cruel and corrupt regime find comfort only with Trump’s Democratic opponents. The bounty they’ve put on Trump’s head is only the boldest of the Iranians’ attempts to dictate the outcome of our election." "Yet here in America, Tehran finds hope—if the right candidate wins in November. The terror state’s hope is that a Harris administration will be as pliable as Obama’s was and could pressure Israel to call off its war on Iran’s surrogates." "When Americans go to the polls, they must take this foreign meddling seriously—and give Iran no satisfaction." by Daniel McCarthy Full article: https://lnkd.in/en6mUy_n Chronicles Magazine

So what will a Trump presidency mean for the Abraham Accords? My commentary for the Atlantic Council's "Donald Trump just won the presidency. Our experts answer the big questions about what that means for America’s role in the world." ⬇ The Abraham Accords will likely serve as a key pillar of US policy in the Middle East for the Trump administration. Knowing that the Accords were among the foremost policy successes during Trump’s first term, the administration will prioritize enhancing and expanding the Accords, with a particular focus on securing agreements with key players such as Saudi Arabia. While the Trump administration will pursue opportunities to engage Palestinian leadership and bring an end to the Israel-Hamas war, it will not see a peace agreement as a necessary precursor for expanding the Accords. Instead, Trump will focus on creating a regional alliance against Iranian influence, leveraging recent Iranian and proxy actions across the region to entice new members with weapons agreements. Additionally, the new administration will likely explore initiatives that foster trade and investment among signatory nations to bolster new and existing agreements. https://lnkd.in/dH9ZQ7Pp

But preserving good relations with America was more important https://econ.st/3LURRKs

WARNING: If Trump does choose Vance, I will NOT suffer any fools questioning his support for Israel. This 👇🏻speech he courageously gave in May to a basically unfriendly-to-Israel crowd is worth 100 AIPAC diners & then some. J.D. Vance really KNOWS how to explain being pro-Israel to America-First types. This will be an essential skill over the coming years: https://lnkd.in/eW2T8fJa

"Under Ivanishvili’s leadership, the Georgian Dream party advanced Kremlin interests, derailing the country’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory, which directly contradicts both the Constitution of Georgia and the will of the Georgian people.” And as a result at this time: "For the first time in Georgia‘s history, dozens of individuals are under sanctions from the US and EU member states. Among them are high-ranking officials, judges, private individuals, businessmen, parliament members, and other members of Georgian Dream." Hope there will be more progress in this regard. https://lnkd.in/dj_sXBKj

🇺🇸Jewish Professor Jeffrey Sachs : "The only mode we know is to attack, complain, and say, 'You're an axis of evil, and you have to do what we say.’ We get to write the sanctions; we get to write the rules. One of the things I've been looking at is the US claim that we lead the rules-based order. It's a fascinating term but what's very interesting is that the US says it non-stop and writes it, but it never defines what the rules are. If you actually look at the rules—as in the treaties, obligations, the UN Charter, and so forth—it turns out the US is systematically the least compliant country in the entire world with following the rules that the world thinks are the rules—the ones that are embodied in what the world has agreed. So this is where we are right now, and since it doesn't work, the answer is the hard fist. When people say, 'Hey, this isn't working; this is just violence. This isn't making peace; this is crushing other people.' This is killing Ukrainians—500,000 of them—because the US and Biden got it in his mind a decade ago that we were going to force NATO into Ukraine, like it or not. Ukrainians, like it or not, we're going to overthrow a government; we're going to get our military bases in there like we have in 75 other countries. Russia? No, no red lines. 500,000 deaths later, it doesn't work. The public doesn't want this, but who's asking the public?" Excerpt from remarks by Professor Jeffrey Sachs, American economist and academic, in an interview with Judge Napolitano, May 6, 2024. Sony Thang X We need diplomacy not more war !!! For me Jeffrey Sachs is one of the most reasonable voices for #Peace he would be the best president the US could ever get! Unfortunately this is just a dream ! #Peacennow everywhere!