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Full Patriots offseason simulation results

For the third straight year, I've participated in the Patriots war room in The Football Spot's offseason simulation. The sim is run on Discord, with fans taking charge of each of the 32 teams and simulating the offseason over the course of a month or two. This year's sim ran about six or seven weeks.

This year, I GM'd the Patriots for the first time (the previous two, I'd been AGM; this year, I swapped roles with last year's GM). We wrote up the offseason in full here, if you'd like a more detailed look into our reasoning for all our moves, but here is a (slightly) shorter synopsis.

Coaching Changes

The sim's coaching changes started before any IRL moves, and we correctly matched two of the Patriots' eventual moves by replacing Jerod Mayo and Demarcus Covington with Mike Vrabel and Terrell Williams. We ended up keeping Alex Van Pelt because his unit was the only one that showed any improvement or additions of creativity during the course of the 2024 season; we also kept him for continuity in Drake Maye's development. (Neither of us had thought that Josh McDaniels would return and hadn't considered him a possibliity.)

Re-signings

January 14 was the cutoff for any real-life roster moves: all before that date were in effect, and the sim divulged from reality that day. That meant that the Patriots' seven practice squad futures signings, having already taken place, were incorporated into the sim.

Per sim rules, all exclusive-rights free agents were automatically re-signed, so the Patriots' five were added to our 90-man roster. We also re-signed RFA LB Christian Elliss with the second-round tender.

Teams were allowed to re-sign three pending unrestricted free agents before the free agency period opened; we chose to bring back TE Austin Hooper, who was a solid TE2 last year, and ED Oshane Ximines, who looked to have a large role in the edge rotation before being lost for the season in September. After letting the rest of our free agents test the market, we also brought back DL Daniel Ekuale and K Joey Slye.

Cuts

Before free agency, we cut LB Sione Takitaki and C Jake Andrews, both depth players we didn't think had a role moving forward. We also used our two allowable post-6/1 cuts on LB Jahlani Tavai (significant play drop and insulted the fanbase) and DL Davon Godchaux (supposed to be good against the run and isn't).

During the FA period, we cut four offensive linemen whom we didn't think would stick after our roster changes: Sidy Sow, Ben Brown, Demontrey Jacobs, and Vederian Lowe. The Lowe cut also saved us $3 million in cap space.

Trades

Before and during the free agency period, we executed two trades. The first and highest-profile was sending S Jabrill Peppers (pre-acquittal) and a third-round pick to the Vikings for ED Andrew Van Ginkel, whom we immediately extended for three years. In looking for a stronger edge group, Van Ginkel (whom I pounded the table for the Pats to sign each of the past two offseasons) is the perfect player to lead that position. We also wanted to strengthen the interior offensive line so later negotiated a pick-and-player swap with the Broncos, sending WR Javon Baker and two picks to acquire G Ben Powers (who'll start at left guard) for two picks, moving down in the third and up from the seventh to the sixth.

We had dangled a few other players as trade bait but got no worthwhile offers.

Free Agents

While we wanted to make significant additions at tackle, wideout, and edge, many of the top free agents were re-signed or tagged and traded (an option we chose not to engage with due to the high price tag for such players) before offers opened. Such players off the board included WR Tee Higgins, WR Chris Godwin, G Trey Smith, ED Josh Sweat, LB Zach Baun, LB Nick Bolton, and T Alaric Jackson. (It should be noted that contracts always explode in the sim for the top free agents.)

All teams were limited (for external FAs) to one 4-year deal, three 3-year deals, and four 2-year deals. Given the limited number of top-tier free agents available, we made T Ronnie Stanley our top target, landing him on a 4-year, $108 million deal and solidifying the left tackle spot. We used our 3-year contracts on defense, successfully signing LB Dre Greenlaw ($60 million) and CB Kader Kohou ($36 million), but failing to land S Jevon Holland (signed with Washington for a record-breaking 4 years and $94 million).

We used two of our 2-year contracts for upgrades at edge and receiver. ED Malcolm Koonce ($40 million) will pair with Van Ginkel along the edge and free up Keion White for a versatile role (don't worry, White's going to be getting a massive amount of snaps). WR DeAndre Hopkins ($26 million) may no longer be the #1 receiver he was, but he's still a reliable receiver a year removed from a 1,000-yard season and a definite upgrade from anyone in the Pats receiver room. Our other two went to RB Kenneth Gainwell ($10 million) and FB Michael Burton ($6 million) to bolster the run game.

For our 1-year contracts, we brought in T Matt Peart, S Eric Murray, DL John Cominsky, LB Justin Strnad, QB Andy Dalton, WR Tylan Wallace, G Ben Bartch, and TE Teagan Quitoriano.

Draft

After our set of trades, we went into the draft with eight picks; during the draft, we made one trade, moving down in the second and fourth rounds to pick up an extra third-round pick.

Our selections were:

  • 1-4: Mason Graham, DL, Michigan. With Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter off the board, Graham was the top player available and a game-wrecker on the interior. He'll either pair with Christian Barmore or, if Barmore's blood clots remain an issue, ensure the Patriots still have a dominant interior defender.
  • 2-50: Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State. Still in need of a #1 receiver, we took Higgins, who profiles as a prototypical X receiver with his size and has the separation ability to make an impact immediately.
  • 3-82: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami (FL). The Patriots' tight end room is headed by veterans Hunter Henry and Hooper, a good duo, but lacks a young tight end to develop into the guy. (I'm not confident in Jaheim Bell.) Enter Arroyo, a very good receiver and willing blocker who can develop behind the vets before taking a more prominent role in the coming seasons.
  • 3-85: Ozzy Trapilo, T, Boston College. Right now Peart is penciled in as the starting right tackle, but Trapilo's size and ability give him the chance of earning the starting spot.
  • 4-137: Kyle Monangai, RB, Rutgers. Despite Rhamondre Stevenson's contract extension, his fumbling issues have a sizable portion of fans questioning his future role as the lead back. Monangai is a dangerous all-purpose back and has the chance to claim a spot in the rotation immediately.
  • 5-145: Antwaun Powell-Ryland, ED, Virginia Tech. Continuing to build up the edge group, we bring in the all-motor Powell-Ryland; while undersized for the position, he's already a proficient pass rusher and can work in a rotation.
  • 6-193: Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan, T, Oregon State. A massive (6'9") left tackle with raw technique, Christian-Lichtenhan has more than the size for the position and can develop behind our OL signings.
  • 7-219: Tyler Cooper, G, Minnesota. Cooper is the opposite of Christian-Lichtenhan: great technique but not overpowering. At minimum, he adds to our guard depth.
  • 7-240: Tyron Herring, CB, Delaware. We've got a lot of young corners who have not yet proven themselves consistently on the outside opposite Christian Gonzalez; Herring, another tall, long corner, will also get the chance to make a mark in that group.

Undrafted Rookies

Not much to go into in detail here, but we signed 10, including one international signing so as to use every available jersey number:

  • Jailin Walker, LB, Indiana
  • Jaylin Smith, CB, USC
  • Cam Horsley, DL, Boston College
  • Alijah Clark, S, Syracuse
  • Zeke Correll, C, NC State
  • Gaethan Bernadel, LB, Stanford
  • Joaquin Davis, WR, North Carolina Central
  • Nathaniel Salmon, TE, New Zealand (IPPP)
  • Jared Casey, FB, Kansas
  • Chandler Brayboy, WR, Elon

And that's everyone.

Overall I think we did a solid job rebuilding the Patriots, adding to our weakest position groups while continuing to build up stronger spots. Now it's time to see if the new coaching staff and front office can do the same.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SB Nation.