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Over the past six years, the New England Patriots have won multiple games in Pittsburgh, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Buffalo, New York, and on the neutral fields of the Super Bowl. But there’s one notable location where they’ve failed to win more than once since 2012, and it’s a place they’ve visited every year; Miami.
Sunday’s Miami Miracle handed New England a familiar finish that’s haunted Tom Brady throughout his career. The loss in south Florida was the Patriots’ fifth in the past six seasons. Brady, 15-1 at home against Miami, dropped to 7-10 over the course of 18 years and no fewer than four name changes at Hard Rock Stadium.
It’d be tough to lay the blame of Sunday’s loss at Brady’s feet. The reigning NFL MVP showed out with a 358-yard, three touchdown performance, pushing his team to a 99.9% win probability before his defense scuttled his best efforts to claim another AFC East title. This is a proud New England tradition; every time the Patriots have lost under Brady at Miami, their defense allowed more points than their season average in the process:
Patriots defense in Dolphins’ wins at Miami, 2001-2018
| Year | Points allowed/game for the season | Points allowed at Miami | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Points allowed/game for the season | Points allowed at Miami | Difference |
| 2018 | 24.7 | 34 | 9.3 |
| 2017 | 15.6 | 27 | 11.4 |
| 2015 | 19.7 | 20 | 0.3 |
| 2014 | 19.6 | 33 | 13.4 |
| 2013 | 21.1 | 24 | 2.9 |
| 2009 | 17.8 | 22 | 4.2 |
| 2006 | 14.8 | 21 | 6.2 |
| 2005 | 21.1 | 28 | 6.9 |
| 2004 | 16.3 | 29 | 12.7 |
| 2002 | 21.6 | 26 | 4.4 |
| 2001 | 17 | 30 | 13 |
Even when Brady’s at his best — as he was Sunday, or in 2013 when he threw for 364 yards and two touchdowns — the Dolphins have found a way to make the Patriots defense look foolish. However, that doesn’t mean the veteran quarterback has been untouchable in Miami. Something about South Beach turns Brady slightly more mortal than other road environs.
Brady’s numbers in Miami are roughly similar to his career number, but the Dolphins’ ability to pressure the veteran quarterback has led to more sacks. That pressure has also led to more interceptions from the lauded signal caller. Here’s how his stats at the Dolphins’ home stadium shape up against the rest of his career.
Tom Brady: His numbers at Miami vs. his career numbers
| Tom Brady | Record | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | Record | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk |
| at Miami | 7-10 | 21.8 | 35.1 | 62.08% | 256.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 92.3 | 2.1 |
| Career | 205-58 | 22.4 | 35 | 64.00% | 262.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 97.5 | 1.8 |
Fortunately for the Patriots, these losses haven’t usually mattered
Since Brady ascended to the Patriots’ starting role, there’s only been one season where the Dolphins have been able to usurp his death grip on the AFC East. That came in 2008, when Miami stunned the Pats in New England behind their debuting wildcat offense, then managed to lose to Matt Cassel at home nine weeks later.
That’s right, the Dolphins have beaten Brady’s Patriots at home nine times, and have used that momentum to earn a division title exactly zero percent of the time.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have shaken off those road losses to earn eight playoff bids and six first-round byes. They’ve won four AFC championships after losing to the Dolphins in Miami and three Super Bowls.
New England turned 2017’s Monday Night Football loss to the Dolphins into a five-game winning streak that ended in the Super Bowl. 2014’s opening week defeat in Miami gave way to Brady’s fourth Super Bowl win. The club’s 2013 and 2015 road losses to the Dolphins set the stage for AFC title game losses in Denver.
But this year’s Sunshine State defeat could be costly
That last part is where Sunday’s miraculous defeat could create problems. The Patriots are now two games behind Kansas City in the race for home field advantage in this year’s playoffs with only three games remaining in the season. A Week 6 win over the Chiefs means New England just has to match the AFC West leader’s record, but that’s going to be tough.
Kansas City finishes its 2018 schedule with games against the Chargers, Seahawks, and Raiders. While it’s possible Patrick Mahomes could struggle against a pair of playoff contenders, the worst the Chiefs are possibly going to finish is 1-2 because the Raiders, as currently constructed, are just a bunch of terra cotta warriors painted black and silver.
Even if Kansas City struggles, the Patriots will have to be perfect to knock them down the AFC totem pole at 12-4. Games against the Bills and Jets are winnable, but next week’s showdown with the Steelers in Pittsburgh will be a major challenge. Lose that game and New England will almost certainly vacate any claim to host the Chiefs in a potential AFC Championship Game showdown.
And that’s important for the Patriots. New England hasn’t won an AFC title game on the road since 2004. The Pats are 0-3 in away games at the NFL’s final four in the years since.
While New England already counts a win over the Chiefs this season, that neck-and-neck battle came in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Facing Mahomes in a frigid Kansas City, where he’ll be bolstered by a rabid group of fans aching for the franchise’s first Super Bowl since 1969, will be an exponentially more difficult task.
Of course, if this Chiefs playoff run ends like the team’s other postseason appearances the past four decades, New England might not have to worry about taking a trip out to western Missouri.