1. Tariff Shock: Decisions and Widespread Consequences
• Executive Details:
• Implementation method: Tariffs were imposed suddenly without prior notice, with limited compensatory measures for affected US companies
• Most affected sectors: Electronics (losses of $32 billion), cars ($21 billion), consumer goods ($18 billion)
• International reactions: China and the EU filed an official complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO)
• Deeper Analysis of Effects:
• Banking sector impacts: Losses of $42 billion from 7 major U.S. banks in one week
• Global shipping movement: 15% drop in container traffic across the Pacific
• Supply chains: Disruptions in 78% of multinational supply chains
2. Enhanced Strategic Dilemma
• Additional Data on Reshoring:
• 68% of US companies plan to keep operations in Asia despite pressures
• Only 12% of companies have started partial relocation of operations to the US
• Estimated relocation costs: $280-320 billion for the private sector
• Expanded Energy Crisis:
• 17% of shale oil wells closed due to economic unfeasibility
• Losses in the US energy sector: $34 billion in Q1 2025
• Employment effects: Loss of 78,000 direct jobs in the energy sector
3. In-depth Iranian File
• Expanded Military Analysis:
• US military presence: Increased troops to 45,000 in the Persian Gulf
• Iranian capabilities: Deployment of 1,200 ballistic missiles on the coasts
• Scenarios of Hormuz closure: US simulations predict losses of $18 billion daily
• Scenarios of Bab al-Mandeb closure: Threat to energy supplies, as Bab al-Mandeb is a key route for oil from the region to Europe and the US Any disruption could affect global oil prices.
• New Regional Alliances:
• Iran- Russia mutual defense agreement (February 2025)
• China-Iran naval exercises with Russian participation, titled "Maritime Security Belt 2025," held in the southeastern Iranian port of Chabahar overlooking the Gulf of Oman (March 2025)
• Increased trade exchange between Iraq and Iran by 37%
4. Detailed Yemeni Disaster
• Indicators of Military Failure:
• Yemeni Armed Forces' control: From 80% to 85% during 2025
• Coalition losses: 143 drones shot down since January 2025
• Human cost: 3,200 additional Saudi casualties
• Yemen's success in breaking U.S. dominance in the Red Sea, viewed by many observers as an unprecedented strategic development and a challenge to the traditional control exerted by the U.S. Navy for decades
• The Yemeni Armed Forces succeeded in imposing a maritime blockade on Israeli shipping through the Red Sea since November 2023, establishing a strong front for Palestinian resistance in response to Israeli occupation’s aggression and blockade on Gaza
• Economic Repercussions:
• Saudi operations cost during the war: $3.2 billion per month
• Saudi oil sector losses: 18% drop in production
• Impact on Aramco: 22% drop in market value
• These losses could double if US aggression against Yemen continues and Trump executes the folly of attacking Iran
5. Expanded Domestic Dilemma
• Political Division:
• 42% of Republican Party members publicly oppose Trump's policies
• Five legislative proposals to limit the president's trade powers
• Domestic Economic Conditions:
• Annual inflation rate: 8.7% (highest since 1982)
• National debt: Exceeded $36 trillion
• Credit rating: Moody’s downgrade of U.S. rating to Aa2
6. Enhanced Geopolitical Shift
• New Alliances:
• China-EU trade agreement (covers 43% of the global economy)
• Russia-Iran-India energy alliance (covers 28% of global energy needs)
• Alternative payment system (19 countries adopting a system outside SWIFT)
Enhanced Recommendations for Concerned Countries For Iran and Iraq:
• Investment in Local Technologies: Develop alternative industries by 40% over 3 years
• Economic Integration: Increase trade exchange to $25 billion annually
• Security Cooperation: Establish a joint deterrent force of 150,000 soldiers
• Zero reliance on oil and its derivatives for the budget
• For Iraq, also freeing oil imports from U.S. hegemony (US Federal Reserve)
For Regional Parties:
• Alternative Monetary Fund: Establish a regional financial system with a capital of $50 billion
• Joint Exercises: Conduct 12 joint military exercises annually
• Joint Infrastructure: Complete 5 major energy and transportation projects
Enhanced Trusted Sources:
• IMF Reports (April 2025)
• RAND Corporation Studies
• Leaked U.S. National Security Council Documents
• Official U.S. Treasury Department Data
Strategic Analysis: The data indicates that Trump’s policies are leading America into a "perfect storm" that combines:
1. Expected economic recession (-1.5% growth in 2026)
2. Unprecedented geopolitical isolation
3. Domestic social crises
4. Erosion of soft military power
In contrast, rival powers are witnessing:
• 5.3% growth in China’s economy
• Increased Russian influence in 14 new countries
• 4.8% recovery in Iran’s economy
• Rise of alternative currencies (Yuan 28% of global reserves).
MNA
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