2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote and is running for re-election to a third full term.
Background
[edit]After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation. [1]
Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating former U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[2][3]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present)[4]
- Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024[5]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Steve Deace, radio talk show host[6]
Potential
[edit]- Brenna Bird, Attorney General of Iowa (2023–present)[6]
Declined
[edit]- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor, nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024[7]
Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
Polling
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 and 2020[10]
- Joshua Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)[10]
- Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate (2020–2023)[11]
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Formed exploratory committee
[edit]- Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney[12]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[13] | Solid R | January 17, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[14] | Solid R | February 11, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe R | February 13, 2025 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
[edit]- ^ Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Burns, Douglas (May 30, 2024). "Ernst seeking third term in U.S. Senate, but open to role in a Trump cabinet". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
- ^ Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
- ^ a b Mutnick, Ally (December 11, 2024). "For Trump's allies, RINO-hunting season is in full swing". Politico. Retrieved December 11, 2024.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
- ^ "Maggie's List Announces First Round of 2026 Senate Endorsements". maggieslist.org. Maggie's List. Retrieved March 27, 2025.
- ^ "NEW POLL: LESS THAN HALF OF IOWA REPUBLICANS SUPPORT JONI ERNST FOR US SENATE IN 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. Victory Insights.
- ^ a b Gruber-Miller, Stephen (April 1, 2025). "These 3 Iowa Democratic lawmakers are considering running for US Senate against Joni Ernst". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved April 1, 2025.
- ^ Price, Dave (March 28, 2025). "Inside Iowa Politics Exclusive: State senator confirms possible U.S. senate run". KTIV. Retrieved March 29, 2025.
- ^ Bellin, Laura (August 5, 2024). "Libertarian Thomas Laehn exploring U.S. Senate bid in Iowa". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.